2
Diamondinthedark
3yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 70
Wolverhampton · Franklin Hodge Handicap (Div 1) · 6f 20y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
46%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Leicester | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Lingfield | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -9.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 21/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 82% | +0.40 |