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3

Leonie

3yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 70

Wolverhampton · Franklin Hodge Handicap (Div 1) · 6f 20y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Unexposed filly who improved to win on handicap debut at Kempton in April. Reportedly made a noise when last of 6 over C&D 8 days later. Unraced since but has had a breathing operation and market best guide on return.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 02/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 7f36y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS2/0344 @ Wolverhampton 17/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 7f36y Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS17/0345 @ Lingfield 14/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 6f1y Std 12814/0455 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 65 · 6f Sta 130 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 65 par30/045OR 656 @ Wolverhampton 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 65 · 6f20y Std 141 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 65 par8/056OR 65projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-08Wolverhampton66th7th−1
2026-04-30Kempton51st1st0
2026-04-14Lingfield53rd3rd0
2026-03-17Wolverhampton43rd2nd+1
2026-03-02Wolverhampton44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0317/0314/0430/048/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -24.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/03/20264th25/10%40%+0.40
17/03/20263rd12/137%50%+0.13
14/04/20263rd5/174%50%-0.24
30/04/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
08/05/20266th10/382%0%-0.82