9
No Return
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 62
Wolverhampton · Franklin Hodge Handicap (Div 1) · 6f 20y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Lingfield | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Catterick | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hamilton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Catterick | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 03/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 27/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 17/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |