6
Sargent Dennis
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 67
Wolverhampton · Franklin Hodge Handicap (Div 1) · 6f 20y
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kempton | 5 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Windsor | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Doncaster | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Windsor | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/03/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 14% | -0.70 |
| 18/08/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 09/09/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |