10
Thanks Dad
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 57
Wolverhampton · Franklin Hodge Handicap (Div 1) · 6f 20y
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Brighton | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Yarmouth | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chepstow | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Brighton | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Southwell | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 03/11/2025 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 27% | -0.52 |
| 21/11/2025 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 18/12/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |
| 16/05/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 29/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 42% | +0.05 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 24/08/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |