1
Arishka's Dream
3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 70
Wolverhampton · Franklin Hodge Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 20y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Ripon | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 92% | +0.26 |
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 19/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 16/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 22% | -0.67 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 18/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |