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5

Campenaerts

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 68

Wolverhampton · Franklin Hodge Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 20y

#7

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual 5f nursery winner (including here) for Archie Watson. Well backed and turned in his best effort since joining current yard when second of 8 over C&D just over 5 weeks ago and he's on a good mark if able to build on that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bath 25/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f160y Fm 133 · HIGHER CLASS25/0645 @ Wolverhampton 22/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 68 · 5f21y Std 134 · beat its mark22/07/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Chelmsford City 30/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 71 · 5f Std 132 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 71 par30/085OR 715 @ Catterick 01/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 72 · 5f Sft 133 · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 72 par4 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 75 · 5f160y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 75 par17/044OR 754 @ Goodwood 23/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 74 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Windsor 08/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 72 · 6f12y Goo 131 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 72 par8/065OR 725 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 70 · 6f GF 136 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Wolverhampton 26/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 68 · 6f20y Std 133 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 68 par26/085OR 68projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Wolverhampton52nd2nd0
2026-07-09Newbury58th8th0
2026-06-08Windsor57th7th0
2026-05-23Goodwood49th8th+1
2026-04-17Bath46th5th+1
2025-10-01Catterick51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/061/108/0626/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength95%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/06/20254th6/168%50%-0.18
22/07/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
30/08/20252nd5/174%83%+0.10
01/10/20251st5/696%100%+0.04
17/04/20266th28/10%58%+0.58
23/05/20269th9/153%0%-0.53
08/06/20267th11/142%33%-0.09
09/07/20268th22/10%36%+0.36
26/08/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03