4
Early Release
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 69
Wolverhampton · Franklin Hodge Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 20y
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bath | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Bath | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Southwell | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Kempton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength13%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 19/01/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 06/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 02/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 11/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |