8
Far Too Fizzy
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 63
Wolverhampton · Franklin Hodge Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 20y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Lingfield | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength50%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 27/03/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.67 |
| 25/07/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 10% | -0.66 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |