IvyArcIvyArc
2

Fordham Flyer

3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 70

Wolverhampton · Franklin Hodge Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 20y

#8

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finished last of 7 on debut for Danny Brooke last summer but offered a lot more when reaching the frame in maiden/novice for Phil Kirby in the autumn. Easy to put a line through his return/handicap debut at Ripon back in the spring but concerning he's been off since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Catterick 27/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 5f Goo 12927/0855 @ Beverley 17/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 5f Sft 13117/0955 @ Leicester 07/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f GS 1337/1054 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 72 · 6f GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 72 par16/044OR 72projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-16Ripon49th8th+1
2025-10-07Leicester54th4th0
2025-09-17Beverley52nd2nd0
2025-08-27Catterick57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0817/097/1016/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength40%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/08/20257th200/10%0%0.00
17/09/20252nd200/10%91%+0.91
07/10/20254th12/137%50%+0.13
16/04/20269th40/10%33%+0.33