7
Lamlash Bay
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 65
Wolverhampton · Franklin Hodge Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 20y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thirsk | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Doncaster | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Doncaster | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Catterick | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 14th | 150/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 12/08/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 11% | -0.55 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |