9
Phoenix Moon
5yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 59
Wolverhampton · Franklin Hodge Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 20y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Newbury | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Salisbury | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Bath | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Windsor | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Nottingham | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 27/10/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 25/03/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 09/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 23/07/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 01/09/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |