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6

Shaw Park

7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 65

Wolverhampton · Franklin Hodge Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 20y

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Operating below best at present and needs this first start over a sprint trip to spark some sort of revival. First-time cheekpieces also applied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Yarmouth 22/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 68 · 7f3y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/05/2025 · OR 68 par22/055OR 684 @ Brighton 31/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 71 · 6f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2025 · OR 71 par5 @ Southwell 30/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 71 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 71 par30/015OR 715 @ Southwell 05/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 71 · 1m13y Std 133 · beat its mark05/02/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Southwell 28/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 71 · 1m13y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 71 par28/024OR 715 @ Southwell 11/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 70 · 7f14y Std 130 · below its mark11/03/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Wolverhampton 18/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 68 · 7f36y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 68 par18/084OR 685 @ Brighton 01/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 67 · 6f210y Goo 133 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Southwell 24/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 65 · 7f15y Std 135 · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 65 par24/095OR 65projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Southwell55th5th0
2026-09-01Brighton53rd3rd0
2026-08-18Wolverhampton44th3rd+1
2026-03-11Southwell58th8th0
2026-02-28Southwell410th9th+1
2026-02-05Southwell53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/055/0218/0824/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength42%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/05/20253rd7/282%71%-0.10
31/08/20252nd9/276%86%+0.09
30/01/20268th28/10%36%+0.36
05/02/20263rd28/10%80%+0.80
28/02/202610th40/10%10%+0.10
11/03/20268th7/163%13%-0.51
18/08/20264th125/10%63%+0.63
01/09/20263rd10/382%60%-0.22
24/09/20265th11/142%50%+0.08