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Elsass

4yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 84

Wolverhampton · Nuvo Audit Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f 51y

#5

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Creditable third of 11 in handicap over this trip on all-weather at Kempton 27 days ago and, though he flopped on turf next time, his record on this surface demands respect and he could well bounce back (all-weather form figures 1213).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 10/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 75 · 1m4f Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 75 par10/102OR 754 @ Southwell 23/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 76 · 1m3f23y Std 126 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 76 par3 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 80 · 1m3f15y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 80 par15/053OR 802 @ Newmarket 04/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 88 · 1m4f GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 88 par3 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 87 · 1m4f10y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 87 par18/073OR 872 @ Ascot 24/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 87 · 1m3f211y GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 86 · 1m4f15y GS 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 86 par21/082OR 863 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 85 · 1m3f219y Sta 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 85 · 1m5f26y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 85 par17/093OR 85projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr37th6th+1
2026-09-05Kempton33rd2nd+1
2026-08-21Hamilton27th5th+2
2026-07-24Ascot27th5th+2
2026-07-18Ripon33rd2nd+1
2026-07-04Newmarket210th8th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/104/0721/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/10/202510th22/10%18%+0.18
23/04/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
15/05/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
04/07/202610th14/126%18%-0.08
18/07/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
24/07/20267th17/255%25%-0.30
21/08/20267th12/137%50%+0.13
05/09/20263rd11/271%80%+0.09
17/09/20267th4/179%40%-0.39