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10

Ash Wednesday

5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 69

Wolverhampton · Appleby Mall Accountants Handicap · 7f 36y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★ Timeform

Commentary

Four-time C&D winner. 10/1, eighth of 12 in handicap over C&D 14 days ago. The cheekpieces go on for the first time but others preferred.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Goodwood 08/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 76 · 7f Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/06/2025 · OR 76 par8/064OR 764 @ York 25/07/2025 · Pos 15th of 22 · OR 76 · 7f GS 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2025 · OR 76 par5 @ Wolverhampton 19/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 75 · 7f36y Std 134 · below its mark19/01/2026 · OR 75 par19/015OR 755 @ Southwell 11/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 74 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Southwell 21/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 72 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 72 par21/035OR 725 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 73 · 7f Sta 133 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 73 · 1m Sta 133 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 73 par30/045OR 734 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 72 · 7f14y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 71 · 7f36y Std 136 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 71 par18/095OR 71projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Wolverhampton58th8th0
2026-07-27Southwell412th11th+1
2026-04-30Kempton57th7th0
2026-04-08Kempton53rd3rd0
2026-03-21Southwell52nd2nd0
2026-03-11Southwell55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0611/0330/0418/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20254th18/15%63%+0.57
25/07/202515th12/137%33%-0.04
19/01/20268th7/282%13%-0.69
11/03/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
21/03/20262nd5/174%91%+0.17
08/04/20263rd13/266%82%+0.16
30/04/20267th15/261%33%-0.27
27/07/202612th9/276%0%-0.76
18/09/20268th10/147%36%-0.11