2
Hilltop
5yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 74
Wolverhampton · Appleby Mall Accountants Handicap · 7f 36y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Newmarket | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 15/12/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |