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Star Of Mali

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 75

Wolverhampton · Appleby Mall Accountants Handicap · 7f 36y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

80%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Free-going sort who has recorded both his wins over 7f at Southwell, most recently in June in a race that worked out well. Wasn't in the same form having been caught wide there when last seen in July. Drops back in grade and is one for the shortlist.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 05/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS5/0845 @ Chepstow 25/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 75 · 5f16y Goo 133 · beat its mark25/08/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Southwell 23/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 74 · 4f214y Std 133 · below its mark23/09/2025 · OR 74 par23/095OR 745 @ Wolverhampton 18/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 70 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Southwell 24/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 70 · 7f14y Std 136 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 70 par24/105OR 705 @ Southwell 21/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 73 · 7f14y Std 130 · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 73 par5 @ Wolverhampton 19/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 73 · 7f36y Std 132 · beat its mark19/01/2026 · OR 73 par19/015OR 735 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 72 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 75 · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 75 par27/074OR 75projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Southwell45th4th+1
2026-06-18Southwell51st1st0
2026-01-19Wolverhampton53rd3rd0
2025-11-21Southwell56th6th0
2025-10-24Southwell51st1st0
2025-10-18Wolverhampton52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0818/1019/0127/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength65%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/08/20254th4/179%67%-0.12
25/08/20252nd1/12100%75%-0.25
23/09/20255th2/189%33%-0.56
18/10/20252nd9/153%90%+0.37
24/10/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
21/11/20256th16/583%58%-0.25
19/01/20263rd11/486%75%-0.11
18/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
27/07/20265th5/174%56%-0.18