IvyArcIvyArc
2

Black Cab

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 54

Wolverhampton · Position Payout At bet365 Handicap · 5f 21y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

74%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Built on a pair of placed efforts in classified company when resuming winning ways in 8-runner handicap over C&D in May. Not in the same form at Newcastle 11 weeks later but worth another chance back at this venue in a refitted tongue strap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 27/06/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 50 · 6f Std 127 · beat its mark27/06/2025 · OR 50 par27/066OR 506 @ Newcastle 26/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 48 · 5f Sta 128 · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 48 par6 @ Wolverhampton 19/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 46 · 5f21y Std 135 · beat its mark19/08/2025 · OR 46 par19/086OR 466 @ Southwell 04/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 46 · 6f16y Std 129 · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 46 par6 @ Wolverhampton 28/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 45 · 6f20y Std 126 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 45 par28/106OR 456 @ Wolverhampton 10/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 44 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 44 par6 @ Wolverhampton 24/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 49 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark24/03/2026 · OR 49 par24/036OR 496 @ Wolverhampton 05/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 49 · 5f21y Std 129 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 54 · 5f Sta 134 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 54 par25/076OR 54projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Newcastle65th5th0
2026-05-05Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-03-24Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-03-10Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2025-10-28Wolverhampton69th9th0
2025-09-04Southwell68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/064/0924/0325/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength91%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/06/202511th22/10%17%+0.17
26/07/202512th25/10%15%+0.15
19/08/20254th10/147%67%+0.19
04/09/20258th16/116%30%+0.14
28/10/20259th28/10%20%+0.20
10/03/20262nd16/116%86%+0.70
24/03/20263rd5/174%80%+0.06
05/05/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
25/07/20265th4/179%56%-0.23