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8

Cabeza De Llave

7yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 48

Wolverhampton · Position Payout At bet365 Handicap · 5f 21y

#8

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On a long losing run but ran creditably in a better class race than he normally contests when fourth of 10 in handicap at Sandown (5f, good to soft, 10/1) 16 days ago. Could fare even better now back down in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chelmsford City 21/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 60 · 5f Std 130 · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 60 par21/026OR 606 @ Southwell 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 59 · 4f214y Std 134 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Windsor 07/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 58 · 5f21y Goo 133 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 58 par7/056OR 586 @ Lingfield 19/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 58 · 4f217y Goo 128 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Windsor 22/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 56 · 5f21y GF 131 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 56 par22/066OR 566 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 56 · 5f21y GF 134 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 53 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 53 par21/076OR 536 @ Windsor 07/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 50 · 5f21y Goo 132 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 50 par5 @ Sandown 16/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 50 · 5f10y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 50 par16/095OR 50projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Sandown54th3rd+1
2026-09-07Windsor65th5th0
2026-07-21Salisbury65th5th0
2026-06-29Windsor68th8th0
2026-06-22Windsor63rd3rd0
2026-05-19Lingfield65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0219/0521/0716/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%

Delivery trend -6.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/02/20263rd25/10%71%+0.71
25/04/20266th14/126%17%-0.10
07/05/20262nd11/142%90%+0.48
19/05/20265th12/137%43%+0.06
22/06/20263rd5/174%82%+0.08
29/06/20268th8/158%42%-0.16
21/07/20265th6/168%43%-0.26
07/09/20265th10/382%60%-0.22
16/09/20264th10/147%67%+0.19