Hvar
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 52
Wolverhampton · Position Payout At bet365 Handicap · 5f 21y
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 8.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Southwell | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 5 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Haydock | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Beverley | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 16/04/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.07 |
| 04/05/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 21/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 05/06/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/08/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/09/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |