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7

Phoenix Beach

7yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 49

Wolverhampton · Position Payout At bet365 Handicap · 5f 21y

#6

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

4-time C&D winner who showed more than on recent return when fourth of 8 in handicap at Newcastle (5f) last week. Can't be discounted from a 2 lb lower mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 27/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 60 · 5f21y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 60 par27/025OR 606 @ Wolverhampton 02/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f21y Std 130 · below its mark02/03/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 58 · 5f21y Std 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 58 par20/035OR 585 @ Wolverhampton 04/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 58 · 5f21y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Wolverhampton 21/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 57 · 5f21y Std 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 57 par21/045OR 576 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 55 · 5f160y Goo 135 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 53 · 5f10y Goo 133 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 53 par13/066OR 536 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 51 · 4f214y Std 132 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Newcastle 25/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 51 · 5f Std 132 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 51 par25/096OR 51projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Newcastle64th4th0
2026-09-17Southwell67th7th0
2026-06-13Bath611th11th0
2026-05-22Bath67th7th0
2026-04-21Wolverhampton55th4th+1
2026-04-04Wolverhampton55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/024/0413/0625/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength70%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/02/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02
02/03/20269th9/276%0%-0.76
20/03/20263rd16/116%75%+0.59
04/04/20265th6/168%43%-0.26
21/04/20265th10/147%33%-0.14
22/05/20267th10/147%45%-0.02
13/06/202611th33/10%23%+0.23
17/09/20267th4/179%45%-0.33
25/09/20264th9/153%57%+0.05