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11

Spirited Dancer

4yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 47

Wolverhampton · Position Payout At bet365 Handicap · 5f 21y

#7

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Seventeen runs since last win in 2024 but shaped encouragingly on first run since leaving Daniel & Claire Kubler (for 2,400 gns) when fifth of 13 in handicap at Bath (5f, good to soft) 19 days ago, keeping on when not clear run final 50 yds. Must enter calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 04/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 58 · 6f Std 133 · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 58 par4/026OR 586 @ Southwell 24/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 54 · 6f16y Std 134 · below its mark24/02/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 50 · 5f160y Goo 130 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 50 par22/056OR 506 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 49 · 5f160y Gd 135 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Brighton 21/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 48 · 6f210y GF 135 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 48 par21/066OR 486 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 48 · 7f80y Goo 135 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Bath 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 47 · 5f160y Fm 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 47 par31/076OR 476 @ Brighton 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 46 · 6f210y Goo 135 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 47 · 5f10y GS 127 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 47 par13/096OR 47projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath65th5th0
2026-08-06Brighton62nd2nd0
2026-07-31Bath66th6th0
2026-06-30Ffos Las68th8th0
2026-06-21Brighton62nd2nd0
2026-06-05Bath62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/025/0631/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/02/20267th22/10%14%+0.14
24/02/202610th25/10%0%0.00
22/05/20265th10/147%67%+0.19
05/06/20262nd5/174%88%+0.14
21/06/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
30/06/20268th5/287%0%-0.87
31/07/20266th8/158%38%-0.20
06/08/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09
13/09/20265th15/261%67%+0.06