A Real War Story
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 63
Woodbine · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 7.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 30% | -0.31 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |