1
Baccaro Point
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 59
Woodbine · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength71%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength60%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 06/06/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 27% | -0.41 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |