5
Big Lew
5yo Horse · 8-13 · OR 71
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength86%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |