2
Lemon Twist
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 71
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 07/08/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.64 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 15/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |