Lumberyard
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 76
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 18/07/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 56% | -0.08 |
| 01/08/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 15/09/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |