Big Baby Henry
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 82
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 69% | -0.04 |
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |