4
Red Pharaoh
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 82
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
61%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 01/09/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 14% | -0.68 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/11/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 28/06/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 11% | -0.42 |
| 31/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |