Astonesthrowaway

5yo Mare · 8-6 · OR 66

Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Woodbine	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2024-04-20	Aqueduct	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2023-08-20	Saratoga	?	5th	1st	+3	8.6
2023-06-15	Belmont Park	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 7-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -34.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/06/2023	1st	10/1	47%	100%	+0.53
20/08/2023	5th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
20/04/2024	8th	4/1	79%	0%	-0.79
30/08/2026	6th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53