6
Sure Shot Timber
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 69
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +13.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 20/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |