Twist Of Sugar

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 77

Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

52%

Place Prob

42%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Woodbine	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-01	Woodbine	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-09	Woodbine	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-18	Woodbine	?	1st	0th	+1	5.0
2026-05-29	Woodbine	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-05-09	Woodbine	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength53%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/11/2025	7th	6/1	68%	40%	-0.28
13/12/2025	5th	15/2	61%	50%	-0.11
19/04/2026	5th	3/1	84%	20%	-0.64
09/05/2026	3rd	11/4	86%	60%	-0.26
29/05/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	71%	-0.10
18/06/2026	1st	13/8	91%	100%	+0.09
09/07/2026	5th	11/2	71%	20%	-0.51
01/08/2026	4th	11/4	86%	40%	-0.46
30/08/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	60%	-0.22