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5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 62
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2024-08-31 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2024-08-04 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2024-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -11.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2024 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/07/2024 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 04/08/2024 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 31/08/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 15/09/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/10/2024 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 08/12/2024 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |