6
Lake Como Heist
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 78
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength42%
Delivery trend +15.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |