Little Alexa
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 68
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-09-09 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-06-29 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 29/06/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 09/09/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 22/09/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |