Well Lit
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 74
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 03/05/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 12/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |