11
Awesome Beat
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89
Woodbine · Race 6 - Optional Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
73%
Place Prob
52%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength82%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 08/11/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 23/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 13/12/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 56% | -0.35 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |