Flirting With Fire
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 91
Woodbine · Race 6 - Optional Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -9.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 03/08/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 07/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |