4
Its In The Cards
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 84
Woodbine · Race 6 - Optional Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-14 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 03/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 14/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |