6
Semper Liber
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 92
Woodbine · Race 6 - Optional Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength71%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 26/07/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |