Sienna Aura
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 54
Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
87%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-11-01 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -11.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 23/11/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |