4
You Signed It
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 65
Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +9.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 30/07/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |