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17:14 · Churchill Downs

Race 2 - Starter Allowance

5f 110yGoing TBC3YO plusTURF6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
5
Top Pick1
OR 91
4/1
Balaclava silks

Vanier, Nancy A And Williamson, Lyda

Balaclava

3yo Filly · 8-6

Bold Warrior - Kepi (Strategic Mission)

Francisco Arrieta1/1Brian Williamson60%
1414
8.0

Class Advantage

24/05 · C9 · finish vs mark n/a24/0521/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below21/06 · mark par21/0611/07 · C7 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par11/072/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below2/08 · mark par2/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 110y · 25%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 1 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 100%24/05Pos 4 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 67%21/06Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%11/07Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 40%2/08
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +44.1%Ahead 4/4
2
Market Fav3
OR 96
6/5
Alta Avenue silks

David Jacobson

Alta Avenue

3yo Filly · 8-6

Tacitus - Atala (Stormy Atlantic)

Tyler Gaffalione60%0/2David Jacobson60%
122252
7.0

Class Advantage

24/05 · C8 · finish vs mark above24/05 · mark par24/056/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below6/06 · mark par24/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below24/06 · mark par11/07 · C7 · finish vs mark below11/07 · mark par8/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below8/08 · mark par6/09 · C7 · finish vs mark below6/09 · mark par6/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 110y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%24/05Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 83%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 86%24/06Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 83%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 33%8/08Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 91%6/09
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength89%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +3.6%Ahead 2/4
6
Value2
OR 98
6/1
Twirling Claire silks

Lloyd Madison Farms IV LLC

Twirling Claire

3yo Filly · 8-6

Twirling Candy - Clairenation (Bernstein)

Luis Saez60%Gregory Foley
221437
7.0

Class Advantage

5/03 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below5/03 · mark par5/0317/04 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below17/04 · mark par15/05 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark above15/05 · mark par12/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par10/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below10/07 · mark par7/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below7/08 · mark par7/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength45%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 110y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 86%5/03Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%15/05Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 78%10/07Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 14%7/08
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -19.1%Ahead 1/4
3
4
OR 90
3/1
Heads In Beds silks

Flatland Racing Stable

Heads In Beds

4yo Filly · 8-10

Hello Youmzain - Eleona (Areion)

D E Sheehy60%Chris Hartman60%
334161
7.0

Class Advantage

8/08 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below8/08 · mark par8/086/09 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below6/09 · mark par14/10 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below14/10 · mark par28/11 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/11 · mark par25/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below25/06 · mark par22/08 · C8 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 110y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 71%8/08Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 73%14/10Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 6 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 6 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 29%25/06Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%22/08
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -9.5%Ahead 2/4
1
5
OR 82
8/1
Shameless Bride silks

Marianne Hunt

Shameless Bride

4yo Filly · 8-10

Vekoma - Betrothal (Explicit)

Axel Concepcion2/2Ethan West60%
11094
5.0

Class Advantage

12/07 · C9 · finish vs mark n/a12/0731/07 · C7 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par18/01 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below18/01 · mark par9/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below9/07 · mark par31/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above31/08 · mark par31/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 110y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%12/07Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%31/07Pos 10 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 10 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 0%18/01Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 20%9/07Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 57%31/08
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength5%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -14.3%Ahead 1/4
4
6
OR 87
12/1
Stormy Paradise silks

David Bloom

Stormy Paradise

4yo Filly · 8-10

Get Stormy - Avie's Paradise (Taste Of Paradise)

Summer Pauly60%0/2Ed Moger
809576
3.0Class ↓6

Class Advantage

5/10 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below5/10 · mark par5/1024/10 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above24/10 · mark par29/05 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below29/05 · mark par11/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below11/06 · mark par9/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below9/07 · mark par31/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below31/08 · mark par31/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength85%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 110y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 30%5/10Pos 12 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 9 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%29/05Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%9/07Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 29%31/08
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength8%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -10.2%Ahead 2/4