6
Kelly Chiron
3yo Filly · 10-10
Auteuil · Prix Amati Claiming Hurdle · 2m 1f 87y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
68%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Clairefontaine | 4 | 3rd | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Clairefontaine | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-29 | Clairefontaine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Dieppe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Compiegne | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 06/04/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 28/05/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |