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13:30 · Warwick

Molson Coors Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase

2m 4fGood to Firm (Good in places)Class 54YO plusTURFHandicap6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
7
3
OR 69
7/2
Ballinoulart silks

Mr D G Bridgwater

Ballinoulart

8yo Gelding · 10-2

Court Cave - Lace Parasol (Presenting)

Richard Upton60%0/3−7lbD G Bridgwater60%
4325P3
6.0Going 8.0
Visor

Long-standing maiden (including in points) but returned to form in a change of headgear from 5 lb out of the handicap when third at Worcester (2m) 3 weeks ago, not going down without a fight having dictated matters until 2 out. Of some interest back up in trip after that.

Class Advantage

22/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/0824/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/09 · mark par14/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/10 · mark par23/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above23/06 · mark par18/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par4/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength58%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm (Good in places)Dist: 2m 4f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 54%22/08Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 78%14/10Pos 2 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 5 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 20%18/07Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 60%4/09
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +42.3%Ahead 4/4
2
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 95
7/4
Malinas Glory silks

Mr Alastair Ralph

Malinas Glory

9yo Gelding · 11-12

Malinas - Refining (Westerner)

Toby McCain-Mitchell60%A Ralph
00211D
5.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap

Won a couple of 3-runner points in April and first past the post in 3m hunter here in May (subsequently disqualified) for Hannah Lewis. Looks ahead of his mark on that showing back down in trip after 4½ months off.

Class Advantage

19/11 · C10 · finish vs mark below19/11 · mark par19/1128/11 · C10 · finish vs mark above28/11 · mark par5/02 · C10 · finish vs mark below5/02 · mark par27/02 · C8 · finish vs mark below27/02 · mark par15/03 · C10 · finish vs mark below15/03 · mark par9/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above9/05 · mark par9/05projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm (Good in places)Dist: 2m 4f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 70%19/11Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 45%5/02Pos 11 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 10 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 10 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 25%15/03Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%9/05
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +8.5%Ahead 3/4
6
4
OR 74
9/1
King Of The Story silks

Hollingsworth, Drewett, Fox & Porter

King Of The Story

10yo Gelding · 10-5

Yeats - Episodique (Indian Danehill)

C P O'Shea60%P Gundry80%
42P7PP
6.0
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Successful 3 times over 2½m last season, including in this race, though largely very disappointing since. Has dropped a long way in the weights (13 lb lower than for last year's victory) if staging a revival in first-time cheekpieces.

Class Advantage

2/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par2/0717/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par23/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/09 · mark par24/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below24/04 · mark par20/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below20/05 · mark par1/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below1/07 · mark par1/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm (Good in places)Dist: 2m 4f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%2/07Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%23/09Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 73%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 50%20/05Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 25%1/07
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +25.1%Ahead 3/4
4
2
OR 84
10/3
Culligran silks

Mrs C Woods

Culligran

7yo Mare · 11-1

Notnowcato - Moonlit Theatre (King's Theatre)

Nick Slatter60%D J Jeffreys
437244
5.0Going 8.0

Off the mark at second time of asking over fences at Newton Abbot (21f) last June. Several decent runs in defeat since and has dipped below that winning mark. Goes back up in trip.

Class Advantage

27/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par27/0614/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below14/07 · mark par6/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below6/06 · mark par1/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/07 · mark par26/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/07 · mark par4/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm (Good in places)Dist: 2m 4f · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 4 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 50%27/06Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 67%Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 25%6/06Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 88%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 70%26/07Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 40%4/09
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -9.8%Ahead 2/4
1
6
OR 97
5/1
Saint Arion silks

Easy Parking Solutions Ltd

Saint Arion

5yo Gelding · 12-0

Order Of St George - Only Orvieto (Kayf Tara)

Benjamin Macey60%J & A O'Neill60%
P0464
4.0Class ↓3
1st Cheekpieces +2

Little impact in point/bumper but has shown a bit in maiden/novice hurdles this summer and, fitted with headgear, is quite an interesting chasing debutant in the context of this race. Market check advised.

Class Advantage

21/03 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a21/0322/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/0519/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a19/0610/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a10/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength62%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm (Good in places)Dist: 2m 4f · 25%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 19 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 19 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 5%21/03Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 63%22/05Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 17%19/06Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 57%10/07
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength94%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.3%Ahead 3/4
5
5
OR 76
22/1
Est Illic silks

Mr Andrew Gough

Est Illic

12yo Gelding · 10-7

Court Cave - Ten Friends (Shantou)

Megan Bevan−5lbS-J Davies60%
P13307
3.0Class ↓4
Visor

Temperamental veteran who increasingly looks flattered by his Ludlow hunter third in April, brushed aside from 2 out after forcing the pace fitted with new headgear at Bangor when last seen 3 months ago.

Class Advantage

17/12 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/12 · mark par17/1215/01 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/01 · mark par22/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/04 · mark par13/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/05 · mark par6/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below6/06 · mark par26/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below26/06 · mark par26/06projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm (Good in places)Dist: 2m 4f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 25%17/12Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 60%22/04Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 10 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 10%6/06Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 25%26/06
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +29.5%Ahead 4/4