13:12 · Fontwell

betting.bet Free Racing Tips Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

2m 1f 162yGoodClass 43YO plusTURFHandicap5 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
Top Pick1
OR 110
3/1
Tilehurst silks

The Great Pretenders

5yo Gelding · 11-9

Bated Breath - Confusing (Refuse To Bend)

Bradley Harris60%0/2−3lbN P Mulholland60%
324512
7.0Going 10.0
Cheek pieces

Recorded a first success since his bumper debut in 2m Worcester handicap in July, finding generously in first-time cheekpieces. Ran at least as well from a 7 lb higher mark when runner-up back there 18 days ago and can remain competitive.

Class Advantage

6/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below6/09 · mark par6/099/03 · C4 · finish vs mark below9/03 · mark par4/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below4/04 · mark par5/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below5/07 · mark par22/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above22/07 · mark par4/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength3%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 100%Dist: 2m 1f 162y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 3 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 82%6/09Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 89%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 57%4/04Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 33%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%22/07Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 80%4/09
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength72%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -18.2%Ahead 1/4
1
Market Fav2
OR 107
6/5
Virtual Rock silks

Mr David Dorans

7yo Gelding · 11-13

Fascinating Rock - Himiko (Aussie Rules)

Shane Fenelon60%D Donovan
2181
6.0Going 10.0Class ↓3
Tongue strap

Useful on the Flat and belied long odds as he built on his Cartmel showing on the back of another stable switch (formerly with John Butler) when winning 12-runner handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter (2½m, good) last week, well on top finish. 7 lb penalty seems unlikely to prevent the follow up.

Class Advantage

16/04 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/049/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a26/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a6/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below6/08 · mark par29/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par15/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above15/09 · mark par15/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength57%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 50%Dist: 2m 1f 162y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 100%16/04Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 88%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%26/07Pos 12 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 30%29/08Pos 1 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 100%15/09
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +16.1%Ahead 2/4
4
Value3
OR 105
13/2
Sun Joy silks

Ms A E Embiricos

7yo Gelding · 11-4

Hunter's Light - Joyeuse Marche (New Approach)

Callum Pritchard60%1/4−3lbB Pauling60%
241272
6.0Going 10.0
Tongue strap

Doubled his hurdles tally at Ludlow (21f) last October and has run well in defeat a couple of times since, latterly when runner-up over C&D in June. In the mix if resuming from a break in similar form.

Class Advantage

7/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below7/09 · mark par7/0922/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below22/09 · mark par23/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/10 · mark par10/11 · C4 · finish vs mark below10/11 · mark par14/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below14/05 · mark par10/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below10/06 · mark par10/06projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength11%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 100%Dist: 2m 1f 162y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 75%7/09Pos 4 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 4 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 25%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%23/10Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 89%Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 14%14/05Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%10/06
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength55%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -4.5%Ahead 2/4
2
4
OR 112
9/2
Goodwin Face silks

Goodwin Racing Ltd

6yo Gelding · 11-11

No Risk At All - Rose Bombon (Cadoudal)

Fern O'Brien60%C Gordon
322119
6.0Going 8.0

Most progressive since returning from an absence, following up from Plumpton in emphatic fashion in 17f amateur riders handicap at Cartmel. Most likely found race coming too soon when well beaten there just 2 days later, so worth another chance.

Class Advantage

6/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below6/04 · mark par6/0411/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below11/05 · mark par5/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/04 · mark par26/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/05 · mark par26/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above26/06 · mark par28/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below28/06 · mark par28/06projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength2%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 100%Dist: 2m 1f 162y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 71%6/04Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 80%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 88%5/04Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%26/06Pos 9 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 9 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 0%28/06
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength32%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -16.4%Ahead 2/4
5
5
OR 105
14/1
Arbitration silks

Brocade Racing

4yo Gelding · 11-2

Beckford - Orphan Annie (Lawman)

Rian Corcoran60%J Tizzard60%
22
6.0
Hood

Fairly useful Flat winner who stepped up plenty on his hurdling debut form faced with a suitably sharp test (also hooded) when second in 6-runner novice at Worcester (2m) in May, albeit seemingly worried out of it. Makes a quick switch to handicaps now but longer trip not sure to suit.

Class Advantage

15/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par15/082/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par14/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above14/09 · mark par8/10 · C4 · finish vs mark above8/10 · mark par13/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a28/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a28/05projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength30%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 33%Dist: 2m 1f 162y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 50%15/08Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 70%14/09Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 46%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 86%13/05Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 80%28/05
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength52%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -6.5%Ahead 2/4