16:30 · Southwell

attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2)

1m 13yStandardClass 43YO plusALLWEATHERHandicap9 runners
Ordered by projected finish
5
2
OR 80
11/4
Winston's Warrior silks

Mr D J M Rees

4yo Gelding · 9-9

Churchill - Kerena (Exceed And Excel)

Jason Watson70%1/8C Hills
318562
6.0Going 10.0

Made winning return here (7f) in April and found improvement, back on all-weather surface, when very good second of 13 in handicap at Kempton (7f) 18 days ago, clear of rest. Shortlist material.

Class Advantage

14/10 · C4 · finish vs mark above14/10 · mark par14/1025/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/04 · mark par9/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below9/05 · mark par11/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below24/07 · mark par4/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength27%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 50%Dist: 1m 13y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 80%14/10Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 8 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 8 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 30%9/05Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 0%24/07Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 92%4/09
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength78%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -12.7%Ahead 2/4
3
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 85
5/2
Hot And Cold silks

Miss K Rausing

3yo Filly · 9-10

Study Of Man - Heat And Dust (Oasis Dream)

L Morris70%2/4Sir Mark Prescott60%
611251
8.0

Back on the up when winning 9-runner handicap over C&D (7/4) 19 days ago, keeping on well. 4 lb rise fair and looks sure to go well again.

Class Advantage

8/11 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a8/1118/11 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a30/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par11/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below24/07 · mark par3/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength11%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 50%Dist: 1m 13y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 44%8/11Pos 1 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 1 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%30/06Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 88%Pos 5 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 5 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 0%24/07Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%3/09
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength45%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.1%Ahead 3/4
4
3
OR 81
16/1
Vincent Rocks silks

Rjh Ltd/facts & Figures/ruth Carr

4yo Gelding · 9-10

Ten Sovereigns - Itmusthavebeenlove (Galileo)

P MulrennanMrs R Carr60%
030250
4.0
Visor

Posted good second at Kempton on final outing for Hugo Palmer in July and backed that up with creditable fifth at Newcastle (1m) on first run for new yard 3 weeks later. Not in same form back at Kempton latest, though.

Class Advantage

28/03 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/03 · mark par28/0329/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above29/04 · mark par13/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/06 · mark par2/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par5/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength34%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 50%Dist: 1m 13y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 20 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 20 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 10%28/03Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 10 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 10 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 0%13/06Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 89%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 69%25/07Pos 11 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 23%5/09
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength45%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +9.1%Ahead 3/4
1
6
OR 87
7/1
Duke's Command silks

Mr J C G Chua

5yo Gelding · 10-2

Dubawi - How (Galileo)

C J Whiteley60%−5lbD O'Meara80%
876508
3.0Class ↓3Going 8.0

Won 3 times in 2025, with latest victory over 1¼m at Lingfield in December. Yet to really get going this year but is well handicapped again and shaped as if better for the run, back from 4 months off, when eighth at York recently.

Class Advantage

27/02 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/02 · mark par27/0220/03 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/03 · mark par3/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/04 · mark par28/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/04 · mark par14/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above14/05 · mark par6/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par6/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength66%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 50%Dist: 1m 13y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 8 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 30%27/02Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 45%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 62%3/04Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 14 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 24%14/05Pos 8 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 8 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%6/09
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength52%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +7.2%Ahead 3/4
11
8
OR 75
14/1
Assiri Heights silks

Juddmonte

3yo Colt · 9-0

Frankel - Archer's Dream (Dream Ahead)

Oisin Murphy70%0/1A M Balding60%
962
4.0
Tongue strap

Lightly-raced maiden who built on return effort when second of 11 at Kempton (1m) 13 days ago, closing all way to line. Likely has more to offer now sent handicapping.

Class Advantage

23/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a23/0716/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a16/089/09 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a9/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength10%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 67%Dist: 1m 13y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 9 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 11%23/07Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 44%16/08Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 90%9/09
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -29.1%Ahead 1/3
7
4
OR 83
50/1
Date Line silks

Lordship Stud

3yo Filly · 9-8

Time Test - Dark Promise (Shamardal)

Daniel Muscutt70%1/1C Johnston60%
2126
6.0
1st Cheekpieces +2

Confirmed debut promise when off the mark in smooth fashion in Newmarket novice last summer and ran a cracker under a penalty, back from 14 months off, at same course 5 weeks ago. Failed to make an impact on handicap bow at Ascot since but she remains low mileage.

Class Advantage

7/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a7/0620/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a20/0614/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a14/085/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength30%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 1m 13y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 80%7/06Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 100%20/06Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%14/08Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 44%5/09
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength32%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +4.4%Ahead 2/4
10
9
OR 77
17/2
Storm Point silks

Mrs Fitri Hay

3yo Gelding · 9-2

Blue Point - Mujabaha (Redoute's Choice)

K Shoemark60%2/5E Walker
416175
4.0

Firmly on the up when doubling his tally at Newbury (1m) in June. Didn't meet expectations over same C&D next time and shaped as if stretched by longer trip when respectable fifth of 13 in handicap at Haydock (1¼m, good to soft) 19 days ago. Not out of things.

Class Advantage

8/12 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a8/121/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/04 · mark par27/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/04 · mark par11/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par9/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par3/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength18%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 50%Dist: 1m 13y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 57%8/12Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 6 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 6 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 50%27/04Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 7 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 7 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 45%9/07Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 67%3/09
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength52%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -19.3%Ahead 1/4
8
5
OR 82
7/2
Moving Shadow silks

Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum

3yo Gelding · 9-7

Too Darn Hot - Dark Liberty (Dark Angel)

S H James70%1/2K R Burke60%
173
5.0

Off the mark in Leicester maiden on debut this time last year and ran to a similar level in both starts since, including when third of 4 in novice at Leicester (7f, good to firm) on belated return 55 days ago. May have more to offer on handicap debut.

Class Advantage

22/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/0931/10 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a31/1029/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above29/07 · mark par29/07projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength17%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 1m 13y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%22/09Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 57%31/10Pos 3 · SP 8/15 | Expected: 97%Pos 3 · SP 8/15 | Actual: 33%29/07
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -22.9%Ahead 1/3
6
7
OR 79
28/1
On The River silks

Mr W A Bethell

7yo Gelding · 9-8

Heeraat - Lady Lekki (Champs Elysees)

S D Bowen60%0/3H Bethell
527532
6.0

Not scored for some time but has been in good form of late, including when creditable second of 11 in handicap over this sort of trip at Beverley 23 days ago. Respected.

Class Advantage

28/03 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/03 · mark par28/0316/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above16/04 · mark par29/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below29/04 · mark par11/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par25/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par30/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par30/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength45%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 17%Dist: 1m 13y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 81%28/03Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 86%Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 25%29/04Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 85%25/07Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 90%30/08
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength18%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.8%Ahead 2/4