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14:05 · Warwick

Jerroms Financial Group Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2mGood to Firm (Good in places)Class 44YO plusTURF4 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 115
4/7
Tralee Girl silks

Mr Dermot Hanafin

Tralee Girl

4yo Filly · 10-12

Camelot - Debdebdeb (Teofilo)

Harry Skelton80%1/3D Skelton80%
32421
8.0Going 10.0Class ↓3

Fairly useful 3-time Flat winner at around 1½m for Michael Bell and placed in listed company on first 2 starts over hurdles for this yard. Put aside a couple of disappointing runs when making the most of a good opportunity in 17f Sedgefield novice last week (made all unchallenged). The one to beat.

Class Advantage

16/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par16/0831/10 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a28/11 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/01 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below24/01 · mark par6/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below6/04 · mark par14/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above14/09 · mark par14/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength76%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm (Good in places) · 17%Dist: 2m · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 0%16/08Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 71%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 91%28/11Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 25%Pos 2 · SP 1/4 | Expected: 99%Pos 2 · SP 1/4 | Actual: 80%6/04Pos 1 · SP 4/9 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 4/9 | Actual: 100%14/09
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength77%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -13.9%Ahead 2/4
2
2
6/4
Sixpack silks

Houghton And Lang

Sixpack

6yo Gelding · 11-0

Sea The Moon - Terre Du Vent (Kutub)

J J Burke60%James Owen
4
7.0Going 10.0

Underwhelming hurdles debut last autumn but much improved on the level for this yard in the meantime, winning 3 handicaps at up to 1¾m. No surprise to see him do better in this sphere now.

Class Advantage

5/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par5/0611/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par20/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par5/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par1/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par22/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength74%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm (Good in places) · 33%Dist: 2m · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 75%5/06Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 100%20/06Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 86%1/08Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 50%22/08
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -6.9%Ahead 2/4
4
3
14/1
Bath Taverness silks

Nigel Holder, Peter Glanville

Bath Taverness

5yo Mare · 10-7

Schiaparelli - Love Of Midnight (Midnight Legend)

Cameron Johnstone-Baker60%−7lbP D Evans60%
051
6.0

Well backed when making her third start in bumpers a winning one at Newton Abbot in July. Might want a stiffer test now hurdling and Flat-oriented yard without a winner in this sphere since 2022/23.

Class Advantage

25/11 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a25/112/04 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a2/0413/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a13/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm (Good in places) · 33%Dist: 2m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 31%25/11Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 60%2/04Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%13/07
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength77%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +39.0%Ahead 3/3
5
4
125/1
Esther Spring silks

Bayliss, Gavin, Turner & Williams

Esther Spring

4yo Filly · 10-5

It's Gino - Spring Risk (No Risk At All)

Jack Tudor0/2Christian Williams
867
2.0
Hood

Well held in bumpers. Goes hurdling now and might be one for the longer term.

Class Advantage

14/03 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a14/0311/05 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a11/0523/08 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a23/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm (Good in places)Dist: 2m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 22%14/03Pos 6 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 44%11/05Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 33%23/08
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 2-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +33.3%Ahead 3/3