4
Nevele Star
3yo Filly · 11-0
Auteuil · Prix Amati Claiming Hurdle · 2m 1f 87y
#5
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength84%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: +2.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saint-Malo | 5 | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-01 | Saint-Malo | 5 | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-10 | Dieppe | 4 | 8th | 4th | +4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Senonnes-Pouance | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength67%
Delivery trend +16.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/07/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |