4
Toscana Du Berlais
8yo Gelding · 10-10
Auteuil · Prix De L'orleanais Hurdle · 2m 1f 196y
#7
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Auteuil | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Auteuil | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Auteuil | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Auteuil | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Auteuil | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength93%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/04/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 80% | +0.75 |
| 18/05/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 89% | +0.84 |
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 57% | +0.02 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |
| 17/05/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 54% | -0.04 |